Three fair six-sided dice are rolled, and \(X\) is the sum of the results. A player claims that \(P(X=9)\) and \(P(X=10)\) must be equal because each sum can be written in exactly \(6\) ways as an unordered sum of three integers from \(1\) through \(6\).
1. Check the player's count by listing all unordered triples for sums \(9\) and \(10\). Write each triple in nondecreasing order.
2. Find \(P(X=9)\) and \(P(X=10)\) using the \(6^3\) equally likely ordered outcomes.
3. Explain why the number of unordered triples alone does not determine the probability of each sum.
Hints
- Determine how many arrangements a triple such as \((1, 2, 6)\) has.
- Compare triples with three distinct entries, two equal entries, and three equal entries.
- The equally likely elementary outcomes identify the result on each of the three distinguishable dice.
Solution
1. For sum \(9\), the unordered triples are \((1, 2, 6)\), \((1, 3, 5)\), \((1, 4, 4)\), \((2, 2, 5)\), \((2, 3, 4)\), and \((3, 3, 3)\). For sum \(10\), they are \((1, 3, 6)\), \((1, 4, 5)\), \((2, 2, 6)\), \((2, 3, 5)\), \((2, 4, 4)\), and \((3, 3, 4)\). Each sum has \(6\) unordered triples.
2. There are \(6^3=216\) equally likely ordered outcomes. For sum \(9\), three triples have all distinct entries and contribute \(3\cdot 6\) arrangements, two have one repeated entry and contribute \(2\cdot 3\), and \((3, 3, 3)\) contributes \(1\). Thus, there are \(3\cdot 6+2\cdot 3+1=25\) outcomes, so \(P(X=9)=\frac{25}{216}\approx 0.1157\).
3. For sum \(10\), three triples have all distinct entries and three have one repeated entry. Thus, there are \(3\cdot 6+3\cdot 3=27\) outcomes, so \(P(X=10)=\frac{27}{216}=0.125\).
4. Unordered triples are not equally likely: a triple with three distinct entries represents \(6\) ordered outcomes, a triple with two equal entries represents \(3\), and a triple with three equal entries represents \(1\). Therefore, simply counting unordered triples ignores their different numbers of arrangements.
Answer
1. Each sum has \(6\) unordered triples.
2. \(P(X=9)=\frac{25}{216}\approx 0.1157\) and \(P(X=10)=\frac{27}{216}=0.125\)
3. The unordered triples represent different numbers of equally likely ordered outcomes, depending on whether entries repeat.