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Introduction to probability

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52514712
At a power plant, an automated system records a control reading every \(40\) minutes. The time \(X\), in minutes, between a technician's random arrival and the next recording is modeled by a continuous uniform distribution on \([0,40]\). a) Write the probability density function \(f\) for \(X\). b) Use an integral of the density function to show that the probability of waiting between \(10\) and \(30\) minutes is exactly \(0.5\). c) A technician says, “The probability of waiting exactly \(20\) minutes is the same as the probability of waiting exactly \(10\) minutes.” Evaluate this statement in the context of continuous random variables.

Hints

- What height must a rectangle of width \(40\) have so that its area is \(1\)? - Connect probability with area under the density curve. - What happens to area when an interval has width \(0\)? - Distinguish continuous measurements from discrete outcomes.

Solution

1. a) A uniform density on \([0,40]\) has height \(\frac{1}{40}\), so \(f(x)=\frac{1}{40}\) for \(0\le x\le 40\) and \(f(x)=0\) otherwise. 2. b) \(P(10\le X\le 30)=\int_{10}^{30}\frac{1}{40}\,dx=\left[\frac{x}{40}\right]_{10}^{30}=\frac{30-10}{40}=0.5\). 3. c) For a continuous random variable, \(P(X=k)=\int_k^k f(x)\,dx=0\). Both probabilities are \(0\), so the statement is mathematically correct.

Answer

a) \(f(x)=\frac{1}{40}\) for \(0\le x\le 40\), and \(f(x)=0\) otherwise. b) \(\int_{10}^{30}\frac{1}{40}\,dx=0.5\) c) The statement is true because both exact-value probabilities are \(0\).
52537412
A continuous random variable \(Z\) has an unknown density function. Only these values of its cumulative distribution function \(F(z)=P(Z\le z)\) are known: \(F(2)=0.35\) and \(F(6)=0.80\). 1. Find \(P(2<Z\le 6)\) and \(P(2\le Z\le 6)\). 2. Use an integral to explain why \(P(Z=a)=0\) for every real number \(a\). 3. What consequence does this have for probabilities of open, closed, and half-open intervals with the same endpoints?

Hints

- Use the difference of cumulative distribution values at the interval endpoints. - Interpret probability as area under a density curve. - What area is associated with an interval of width \(0\)?

Solution

1. \(P(2<Z\le 6)=F(6)-F(2)=0.80-0.35=0.45\). Since \(P(Z=2)=0\), \(P(2\le Z\le 6)=0.45\) as well. 2. For a continuous random variable, \(P(Z=a)=\int_a^a f(z)\,dz=0\) because the interval has zero width. 3. Including or excluding endpoints does not change the probability. Thus, \(P(a\le Z\le b)=P(a<Z\le b)=P(a\le Z<b)=P(a<Z<b)\).

Answer

1. \(P(2<Z\le 6)=0.45\) and \(P(2\le Z\le 6)=0.45\) 2. \(P(Z=a)=\int_a^a f(z)\,dz=0\) 3. Open, closed, and half-open intervals with the same endpoints have equal probabilities for a continuous random variable.
52696312
An urn contains \(7\) blue balls and \(3\) red balls. Two balls are drawn with replacement. Only the unordered pair of colors is recorded, so the order of the draws is ignored. a) Give an appropriate sample space \(S\). b) Find the probability of each outcome in \(S\). c) Explain why the outcomes in this sample space are not equally likely.

Hints

- List the possible color combinations when order does not matter. - A mixed-color pair can occur in two orders. - Compare the probabilities of the outcomes.

Solution

1. The possible unordered color pairs are \(S=\{(B, B),(B, R),(R, R)\}\). 2. \(P((B, B))=\frac{7}{10}\cdot\frac{7}{10}=0.49\). 3. The mixed-color outcome can occur in either order, so \(P((B, R))=\frac{7}{10}\cdot\frac{3}{10}+\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac{7}{10}=0.42\). 4. \(P((R, R))=\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac{3}{10}=0.09\). 5. The three outcomes have different probabilities, so this sample space is not an equally likely-outcomes model.

Answer

a) \(S=\{(B, B),(B, R),(R, R)\}\) b) \(P((B, B))=0.49\), \(P((B, R))=0.42\), and \(P((R, R))=0.09\) c) The outcomes are not equally likely because their probabilities are different.
52716612
A loaded six-sided die is designed so that rolling a \(6\) is twice as likely as rolling any one of the other five numbers. 1. Use the probability rule that all outcome probabilities add to \(1\) to find \(P(6)\). 2. Explain why the formula \(P(A)=\frac{\text{number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{number of possible outcomes}}\) cannot be used directly here.

Hints

- What must the probabilities of all six outcomes add to? - Let \(p\) represent the probability of each outcome from \(1\) through \(5\). - What assumption is required before counting favorable and possible outcomes gives a probability? - Compare a fair die with a loaded die.

Solution

1. Let \(p\) be the probability of rolling any one of the numbers \(1\) through \(5\). Then \(P(6)=2p\). Since all outcome probabilities add to \(1\), \(5p+2p=1\). Thus \(7p=1\), so \(p=\frac{1}{7}\) and \(P(6)=\frac{2}{7}\approx 0.2857\). 2. The favorable-outcomes-over-possible-outcomes formula assumes that all individual outcomes are equally likely. This die is loaded, so its six outcomes are not equally likely.

Answer

1. \(P(6)=\frac{2}{7}\approx 0.2857\) 2. The formula does not apply directly because the six outcomes are not equally likely.
52718012
Different probability models apply in different situations. a) A fair six-sided die is rolled. Which probability model should be used to find the probability of the event \(A\): “The roll is a prime number”? Find \(P(A)\). b) A loaded six-sided die has sample space \(S=\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}\). Rolling a \(6\) is three times as likely as rolling any one of the other numbers. Find \(P(k)\) for every \(k\in S\).

Hints

- When can you assume that all outcomes have the same probability? - Which numbers from \(1\) through \(6\) are prime? - Use one variable for the probability of each outcome from \(1\) through \(5\). - Which probability rule determines the value of that variable?

Solution

1. For a fair die, the six outcomes are equally likely. The prime outcomes are \(2\), \(3\), and \(5\), so \(P(A)=\frac{3}{6}=\frac{1}{2}=0.5\). 2. Let \(x\) be the probability of each outcome from \(1\) through \(5\). Then \(P(6)=3x\). 3. The probabilities must add to \(1\): \(5x+3x=1\). Thus \(8x=1\), so \(x=0.125\). 4. Therefore, \(P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=0.125\) and \(P(6)=0.375\).

Answer

a) Use the equally likely outcomes model. \(P(A)=\frac{1}{2}=0.5\). b) \(P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=0.125\), and \(P(6)=0.375\).
53091912
One card is drawn at random from a standard \(52\)-card deck. a) Let \(S_1\) record only the suit. List the sample space and find the probability of each outcome. b) Let \(S_2\) record only the rank. List the sample space and find the probability of each outcome. c) Explain why the outcomes within both \(S_1\) and \(S_2\) are equally likely. d) Let \(S_3=\{\text{face card},\text{not a face card}\}\), where face cards are jacks, queens, and kings. Are the two outcomes equally likely? Justify your answer.

Hints

- Count how many cards belong to each suit and each rank. - Equal numbers of cards produce equal probabilities. - Count face cards separately from all other cards.

Solution

1. \(S_1=\{\text{clubs},\text{diamonds},\text{hearts},\text{spades}\}\). Each suit has \(13\) cards, so each outcome has probability \(\frac{13}{52}=\frac{1}{4}\). 2. \(S_2=\{A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K\}\). Each rank has \(4\) cards, so each outcome has probability \(\frac{4}{52}=\frac{1}{13}\). 3. Each suit occurs the same number of times in the deck, and each rank occurs the same number of times, so the outcomes within each sample space are equally likely. 4. There are \(12\) face cards and \(40\) non-face cards. Thus, \(P(\text{face card})=\frac{12}{52}=\frac{3}{13}\), while \(P(\text{not a face card})=\frac{40}{52}=\frac{10}{13}\). The outcomes are not equally likely.

Answer

a) \(S_1=\{\text{clubs},\text{diamonds},\text{hearts},\text{spades}\}\); each probability is \(\frac{1}{4}\). b) \(S_2=\{A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K\}\); each probability is \(\frac{1}{13}\). c) Each suit and each rank appears equally often in the deck. d) No. \(P(\text{face card})=\frac{3}{13}\) and \(P(\text{not a face card})=\frac{10}{13}\).
52511112
A continuous random variable \(X\) is uniformly distributed on \([0, 5]\). Its probability density function is \(f(x)=\frac{1}{5}\) for \(0\le x\le 5\) and \(f(x)=0\) otherwise. 1. Find the probability that \(X\) is in the interval \([1.15, 1.25)\). 2. A value of \(X\) is rounded to one decimal place. Find the probability that the rounded value is \(1.2\). 3. A value of \(X\) is rounded to \(k\) decimal places, where \(k\) is a positive integer. For a value \(a\) that can be written to \(k\) decimal places and satisfies \(0.5\cdot 10^{-k}\le a\le 5-0.5\cdot 10^{-k}\), write a general expression for the probability that rounding produces \(a\). Explain how the width of the rounding interval affects the probability.

Hints

- How do you find an interval probability for a continuous uniform distribution? - Which original values round to a given value with one decimal place? - What is the distance between consecutive numbers written to \(k\) decimal places? - How does that distance change when one more decimal place is used?

Solution

1. For a uniform distribution, the probability is the interval width divided by the total width: \(P(1.15\le X<1.25)=\frac{1.25-1.15}{5}=\frac{0.10}{5}=0.02\). 2. A value rounds to \(1.2\) to one decimal place when it lies in \([1.15,1.25)\). Therefore, \(P(\text{rounds to }1.2)=0.02\). 3. The values that round to \(a\) lie in \([a-0.5\cdot 10^{-k},a+0.5\cdot 10^{-k})\), an interval of width \(10^{-k}\). Thus, \(P=\frac{10^{-k}}{5}=0.2\cdot 10^{-k}\). Each additional decimal place divides the interval width, and therefore the probability, by \(10\).

Answer

1. \(P(1.15\le X<1.25)=0.02\) 2. \(P(\text{rounds to }1.2)=0.02\) 3. \(P=\frac{10^{-k}}{5}=0.2\cdot 10^{-k}\). The probability is proportional to the width \(10^{-k}\) of the rounding interval.
52514212
Let \(X\) be a continuous random variable with probability density function \(f\). a) Use an integral to explain why, for any \(a<b\), \(P(a\le X\le b)=P(a<X<b)\). b) A student claims, “If the probability of every individual value is zero, then the probability of an entire interval must also be zero because an interval is made up of its individual values.” Explain why this reasoning is incorrect by contrasting a sum for a discrete random variable with an integral for a continuous random variable.

Hints

- What is the area over an interval whose width is exactly \(0\)? - Recall how probability is defined using a density function. - Compare the length of a line segment with the length of one point on that segment.

Solution

1. a) For any point \(c\), \(P(X=c)=\int_c^c f(x)\,dx=0\). Therefore, \(P(a\le X\le b)=P(X=a)+P(a<X<b)+P(X=b)=P(a<X<b)\). 2. b) For a continuous random variable, probability is not found by a countable sum of point probabilities. It is found by an integral, which is a limit of area sums and may be positive over an interval even though each individual point has probability \(0\). Similarly, a line segment has positive length even though each point has length \(0\).

Answer

a) Since \(P(X=c)=\int_c^c f(x)\,dx=0\), the endpoints \(a\) and \(b\) do not change the interval probability. b) Continuous probabilities are defined by integrals, not by adding individual point probabilities. An integral over an interval can be positive even though every point has probability \(0\).
52694512
A raffle has \(20\) participants, including Alex Rivera and Jordan Rivera. Five identical prizes are awarded in successive drawings. After each drawing, the winning ticket is returned, so the same person can win more than once. Find the probability that Alex wins exactly \(2\) prizes and Jordan wins exactly \(1\) prize.

Hints

- Think of the five drawings as five positions. - First choose the positions won by Alex, then choose the position won by Jordan. - What is the probability that a winner is neither Alex nor Jordan? - Find the probability of one specific qualifying order, then account for all such orders.

Solution

1. On each drawing, \(P(A)=\frac{1}{20}\), \(P(J)=\frac{1}{20}\), and the probability that someone else wins is \(P(O)=\frac{18}{20}\). 2. Choose the \(2\) drawings won by Alex and then the \(1\) drawing won by Jordan: \(\binom{5}{2}\binom{3}{1}=10\cdot 3=30\) arrangements. 3. Each qualifying arrangement has probability \(\left(\frac{1}{20}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{20}\right)\left(\frac{18}{20}\right)^2\). 4. Therefore, the required probability is \(30\left(\frac{1}{20}\right)^3\left(\frac{18}{20}\right)^2=\frac{243}{80{,}000}=0.0030375\).

Answer

\(\frac{243}{80{,}000}=0.0030375\), or \(0.30375\%\)
52694612
A bag contains \(10\) balls: \(2\) red, \(3\) blue, and \(5\) yellow. A ball is drawn, its color is recorded, and the ball is replaced. This process is repeated for \(6\) draws. Find the probability of drawing exactly \(2\) red balls and exactly \(2\) blue balls.

Hints

- How many yellow draws must occur? - Find the probability of one specific order, such as red, red, blue, blue, yellow, yellow. - How many ways can the positions of the three colors be assigned? - Replacement makes the draws independent and keeps the color probabilities constant.

Solution

1. The color probabilities on each draw are \(P(R)=0.2\), \(P(B)=0.3\), and \(P(Y)=0.5\). 2. If exactly \(2\) draws are red and exactly \(2\) are blue, the remaining \(2\) draws must be yellow. 3. Choose the \(2\) red positions and then the \(2\) blue positions: \(\binom{6}{2}\binom{4}{2}=15\cdot 6=90\) color sequences. 4. Each qualifying sequence has probability \((0.2)^2(0.3)^2(0.5)^2=0.0009\). 5. Therefore, the probability is \(90\cdot 0.0009=0.081\).

Answer

\(0.081\), or \(8.1\%\)
52698812
A special six-sided die has faces labeled \(1,1,1,2,2,3\). The die is rolled twice, and the unordered pair of numbers is recorded. a) List all possible outcomes in a sample space \(S\). b) Find the probability distribution for \(S\). c) Use your results from part b) to explain why the six outcomes in \(S\) cannot be treated as equally likely.

Hints

- First find the probability of each number on one roll. - For a pair of different numbers, account for both possible orders. - Check that the probabilities add to \(1\).

Solution

1. The unordered outcomes are \(S=\{(1, 1),(1, 2),(1, 3),(2, 2),(2, 3),(3, 3)\}\). 2. On one roll, \(P(1)=\frac{1}{2}\), \(P(2)=\frac{1}{3}\), and \(P(3)=\frac{1}{6}\). 3. Therefore, \(P((1, 1))=\frac{1}{4}\), \(P((1, 2))=2\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)=\frac{1}{3}\), and \(P((1, 3))=2\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)=\frac{1}{6}\). 4. Also, \(P((2, 2))=\frac{1}{9}\), \(P((2, 3))=2\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)=\frac{1}{9}\), and \(P((3, 3))=\frac{1}{36}\). 5. These probabilities are not all equal, so assigning probability \(\frac{1}{6}\) to each unordered pair would be incorrect.

Answer

a) \(S=\{(1, 1),(1, 2),(1, 3),(2, 2),(2, 3),(3, 3)\}\) b) \(P((1, 1))=\frac{1}{4}\), \(P((1, 2))=\frac{1}{3}\), \(P((1, 3))=\frac{1}{6}\), \(P((2, 2))=\frac{1}{9}\), \(P((2, 3))=\frac{1}{9}\), and \(P((3, 3))=\frac{1}{36}\) c) The outcomes are not equally likely because their probabilities range from \(\frac{1}{36}\) to \(\frac{1}{3}\).
52706712
A fair six-sided die is rolled \(10\) times. Classify each result as a \(6\), a \(1\), or another number. Find the probability of rolling exactly two \(6\)s, exactly three \(1\)s, and five other numbers. Show how binomial coefficients are used.

Hints

- Find the probability of each of the three result categories on one roll. - Choose the positions of the two \(6\)s first. - After those positions are fixed, how many positions remain for the three \(1\)s? - Multiply the number of qualifying arrangements by the probability of one arrangement.

Solution

1. On each roll, \(P(6)=\frac{1}{6}\), \(P(1)=\frac{1}{6}\), and \(P(\text{other})=\frac{4}{6}=\frac{2}{3}\). 2. Choose the \(2\) positions for the \(6\)s and then the \(3\) positions for the \(1\)s: \(\binom{10}{2}\binom{8}{3}=45\cdot 56\) arrangements. 3. Each qualifying arrangement has probability \(\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^3\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^5\). 4. Therefore, \(P=\binom{10}{2}\binom{8}{3}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^5\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^5=\frac{280}{6561}\approx 0.0427\).

Answer

\(\frac{280}{6561}\approx 0.0427\), or about \(4.27\%\)
52706812
A shipping company classifies packages as light (at most \(2\,\text{kg}\)), standard (more than \(2\,\text{kg}\) and at most \(10\,\text{kg}\)), or heavy (more than \(10\,\text{kg}\)). Historical data show that \(60\%\) of packages are light, \(30\%\) are standard, and \(10\%\) are heavy. Twelve packages are selected independently. The probability of an event \(E\) is represented by \(P(E)=\binom{12}{8}\binom{4}{3}(0.6)^8(0.3)^3(0.1)^1\). Describe event \(E\), and explain the combinatorial meanings of \(\binom{12}{8}\) and \(\binom{4}{3}\).

Hints

- Match each probability base with its exponent. - A binomial coefficient can choose positions for one category. - Why are only \(4\) positions available after the first choice?

Solution

1. The exponents show that event \(E\) contains exactly \(8\) light packages, \(3\) standard packages, and \(1\) heavy package. 2. The factor \(\binom{12}{8}\) chooses the \(8\) positions occupied by light packages among the \(12\) selections. 3. After those positions are chosen, \(4\) positions remain. The factor \(\binom{4}{3}\) chooses the \(3\) positions occupied by standard packages. The final position must contain the heavy package.

Answer

Event \(E\) is “exactly \(8\) light packages, \(3\) standard packages, and \(1\) heavy package.” The factor \(\binom{12}{8}\) chooses the light-package positions, and \(\binom{4}{3}\) chooses the standard-package positions from the remaining \(4\) positions.
52717312
Suppose a finite sample space \(S\) has \(|S|=n\) equally likely outcomes. For any event \(A\subseteq S\), define \(P(A)=\frac{|A|}{n}\). Show that this definition satisfies the following probability axioms: 1. Nonnegativity: \(P(A)\ge 0\) for every event \(A\subseteq S\). 2. Normalization: \(P(S)=1\). 3. Additivity: If \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint, then \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)\).

Hints

- What values can \(|A|\) have compared with \(n\)? - How many outcomes are in the entire sample space? - If two sets have no elements in common, how many elements are in their union?

Solution

1. Since \(|A|\) is an integer from \(0\) to \(n\) and \(n>0\), \(P(A)=\frac{|A|}{n}\ge 0\). 2. Because \(|S|=n\), \(P(S)=\frac{|S|}{n}=\frac{n}{n}=1\). 3. If \(A\cap B=\emptyset\), then \(|A\cup B|=|A|+|B|\). Therefore, \(P(A\cup B)=\frac{|A|+|B|}{n}=\frac{|A|}{n}+\frac{|B|}{n}=P(A)+P(B)\).

Answer

1. \(|A|\ge 0\), so \(P(A)=\frac{|A|}{n}\ge 0\). 2. \(P(S)=\frac{n}{n}=1\). 3. For disjoint events, \(|A\cup B|=|A|+|B|\), so \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)\).
52717412
After \(N\) trials of a random experiment, the relative frequency of an event \(A\) is \(h_N(A)=\frac{H_N(A)}{N}\), where \(H_N(A)\) is the number of trials in which \(A\) occurred. Show that the relative-frequency function satisfies these probability axioms: 1. \(h_N(A)\ge 0\). 2. \(h_N(S)=1\), where \(S\) is the sample space. 3. If \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint, then \(h_N(A\cup B)=h_N(A)+h_N(B)\).

Hints

- Recall the relationship between an event count and its relative frequency. - Can a count of observed outcomes be negative? - Across \(N\) trials, how many outcomes belong to the sample space? - If events are disjoint, can one trial be counted in both events?

Solution

1. The count \(H_N(A)\) is nonnegative. Since \(N>0\), \(h_N(A)=\frac{H_N(A)}{N}\ge 0\). 2. Every trial produces an outcome in \(S\), so \(H_N(S)=N\). Thus \(h_N(S)=\frac{N}{N}=1\). 3. If \(A\) and \(B\) are disjoint, no trial can be counted in both events. Therefore, \(H_N(A\cup B)=H_N(A)+H_N(B)\). Dividing by \(N\) gives \(h_N(A\cup B)=\frac{H_N(A)}{N}+\frac{H_N(B)}{N}=h_N(A)+h_N(B)\).

Answer

1. \(h_N(A)\ge 0\) because \(H_N(A)\ge 0\) and \(N>0\). 2. \(H_N(S)=N\), so \(h_N(S)=1\). 3. For disjoint events, \(H_N(A\cup B)=H_N(A)+H_N(B)\), so dividing by \(N\) proves additivity.
52717712
Let \((S,\mathcal{E},P)\) be a probability space. a) Derive the complement rule \(P(A^c)=1-P(A)\) from the probability axioms. b) Suppose \(A\subseteq B\). Use the axioms to show that \(P(B)=P(A)+P(B\setminus A)\). Then explain why this implies \(P(A)\le P(B)\).

Hints

- How can you write the entire sample space using an event and its complement? - Which axiom gives the probability of the entire sample space? - When \(A\subseteq B\), split \(B\) into two disjoint parts. - Which axiom guarantees that a probability cannot be negative?

Solution

1. The events \(A\) and \(A^c\) are disjoint and satisfy \(A\cup A^c=S\). By additivity, \(P(S)=P(A)+P(A^c)\). 2. Since \(P(S)=1\), \(P(A^c)=1-P(A)\). 3. If \(A\subseteq B\), then \(B=A\cup(B\setminus A)\), and the two sets on the right are disjoint. 4. By additivity, \(P(B)=P(A)+P(B\setminus A)\). 5. Nonnegativity gives \(P(B\setminus A)\ge 0\), so \(P(B)\ge P(A)\).

Answer

a) \(P(A^c)=1-P(A)\) b) \(P(B)=P(A)+P(B\setminus A)\). Since \(P(B\setminus A)\ge 0\), \(P(A)\le P(B)\).
52717912
A random experiment has sample space \(S=\{e_1,e_2,e_3\}\). The following event probabilities are proposed: 1. \(P(\{e_1,e_2\})=0.3\) 2. \(P(\{e_2,e_3\})=0.6\) Determine whether a probability distribution with these values can exist. Find the probabilities of the individual outcomes and check the probability axioms.

Hints

- What do the probability axioms require about the total probability and the sign of each probability? - Express each event probability as a sum of individual outcome probabilities. - Set up equations for the three unknown probabilities. - Check whether every resulting probability lies between \(0\) and \(1\).

Solution

1. Since \(\{e_1,e_2\}\) and \(\{e_3\}\) are disjoint and their union is \(S\), \(0.3+P(e_3)=1\). Thus \(P(e_3)=0.7\). 2. Since \(P(\{e_2,e_3\})=P(e_2)+P(e_3)\), \(0.6=P(e_2)+0.7\), so \(P(e_2)=-0.1\). 3. Since \(P(\{e_1,e_2\})=P(e_1)+P(e_2)\), \(0.3=P(e_1)-0.1\), so \(P(e_1)=0.4\). 4. The values add to \(1\), but \(P(e_2)=-0.1<0\). This violates nonnegativity, so no such probability distribution exists.

Answer

No such probability distribution exists. The proposed values imply \(P(e_1)=0.4\), \(P(e_2)=-0.1\), and \(P(e_3)=0.7\). The negative value violates the nonnegativity axiom.
52719012
Consider these three statements about probability. I. “For a fair four-sided die numbered \(1\) through \(4\), the probability of rolling a prime number is \(0.5\).” II. “Long-term production data show that a randomly selected part from Machine A has a \(0.02\) probability of being defective.” III. “On a finite sample space, a function \(P\) that assigns a number to every event is a probability measure when \(P(S)=1\), \(P(A)\ge 0\), and the addition rule holds for disjoint events.” a) Identify statement I as an equally likely outcomes model and statement II as an empirical probability estimate. Justify each classification. b) Explain how statement III relates to the practical approaches in statements I and II.

Hints

- Separate the source of a probability value from the rules that the value must obey. - Which statement relies on symmetry, and which relies on observations? - Could a machine's defect rate be estimated without collecting production data?

Solution

1. Statement I uses an equally likely outcomes model because a fair four-sided die has four equally likely faces. The prime outcomes are \(2\) and \(3\), so the probability is \(\frac{2}{4}=0.5\). 2. Statement II is empirical because the value comes from long-term observed production data. 3. Statement III gives the mathematical rules that every valid probability model must satisfy, regardless of whether its numerical values come from symmetry, data, or another justified model.

Answer

a) I uses an equally likely outcomes model because the die is fair and \(2\) of the \(4\) outcomes are prime. II is empirical because the value is estimated from observed production data. b) The probability axioms provide the common mathematical framework that both approaches must satisfy; they do not specify how the numerical probabilities are obtained.
53082812
A game uses an eight-card mini-deck containing the \(7\), \(8\), \(9\), \(10\), jack, queen, king, and ace of spades. A drawing mechanism may make the cards unequally likely. a) Suppose each numbered card has probability \(p\), and each of the other four cards has probability \(1.5p\). Find \(p\). b) Let \(E\) be the event that a face card—jack, queen, or king—is drawn. Find \(P(E)\). c) Compare this probability with the probability from an equally likely outcomes model for the same mini-deck.

Hints

- What must the probabilities of all eight cards add to? - Write one equation that includes all four numbered cards and all four other cards. - Which cards are face cards? - In an equally likely outcomes model, compare favorable outcomes with all possible outcomes.

Solution

1. The probabilities must add to \(1\): \(4p+4(1.5p)=1\). Thus \(10p=1\), so \(p=0.10\). 2. Each face card has probability \(1.5\cdot 0.10=0.15\). There are three face cards, so \(P(E)=3\cdot 0.15=0.45\). 3. If all eight cards were equally likely, \(P(E)=\frac{3}{8}=0.375\). The weighted model gives a probability that is \(0.45-0.375=0.075\) greater.

Answer

a) \(p=0.10\) b) \(P(E)=0.45\) c) The equally likely outcomes model gives \(P(E)=\frac{3}{8}=0.375\), so the weighted model is higher by \(0.075\).
53083012
A spinner has \(10\) equal sections labeled \(1\) through \(10\). 1. Find the theoretical probability that the spinner lands on a perfect square. 2. In \(500\) test spins, the spinner landed on \(10\) a total of \(65\) times. Find the relative frequency of landing on \(10\) and compare it with the theoretical probability. 3. Now suppose the spinner is weighted so that each number from \(1\) through \(9\) has the same probability \(q\), while \(P(10)=0.2\). Use the fact that all outcome probabilities sum to \(1\) to find \(q\), and then find the probability of landing on an odd number.

Hints

- List the perfect squares from \(1\) through \(10\). - Relative frequency is the number of occurrences divided by the number of trials. - The probabilities of all possible outcomes must add to \(1\). - Add the probabilities of the odd-numbered outcomes.

Solution

1. The perfect squares from \(1\) through \(10\) are \(1\), \(4\), and \(9\). Therefore, \(P(\text{perfect square})=\frac{3}{10}=0.3\). 2. The relative frequency is \(\frac{65}{500}=0.13\). For an equal-section spinner, \(P(10)=\frac{1}{10}=0.1\), so the observed relative frequency is \(0.03\) higher. 3. The probabilities must satisfy \(9q+0.2=1\). Thus, \(q=\frac{0.8}{9}=\frac{4}{45}\). There are \(5\) odd numbers among \(1\) through \(9\), so \(P(\text{odd})=5q=\frac{4}{9}\approx 0.444\).

Answer

1. \(P(\text{perfect square})=0.3\) 2. The relative frequency is \(0.13\), which is \(0.03\) higher than the theoretical probability \(0.1\). 3. \(q=\frac{4}{45}\), and \(P(\text{odd})=\frac{4}{9}\approx 0.444\).
53083212
Consider a random experiment with sample space \(S=\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}\). 1. In one probability model, each odd number has probability \(0.1\), so \(P(1)=P(3)=P(5)=0.1\). Each even number has the same probability, so \(P(2)=P(4)=P(6)=x\). Find \(x\) so that this is a valid probability model. 2. For the event \(E\), “the number is greater than \(3\),” find the probability under the model from part 1 and under an equally likely-outcomes model. 3. In \(600\) trials, the outcome \(6\) occurred \(140\) times. Compare this relative frequency with \(P(6)\) in the two models. Which model better matches this observation?

Hints

- The probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space must add to \(1\). - Compare an equally likely-outcomes model with the given unequal probability model. - Compare the observed relative frequency of \(6\) with its theoretical probability in each model.

Solution

1. The probabilities must add to \(1\), so \(3\cdot0.1+3x=1\). Therefore, \(3x=0.7\) and \(x=\frac{7}{30}\approx 0.233\). 2. Since \(E=\{4,5,6\}\), the first model gives \(P(E)=\frac{7}{30}+0.1+\frac{7}{30}=\frac{17}{30}\approx 0.567\). Under the equally likely-outcomes model, \(P(E)=\frac{3}{6}=0.5\). 3. The relative frequency is \(\frac{140}{600}=\frac{7}{30}\approx 0.233\). This equals \(P(6)\) in the first model, while the equally likely-outcomes model gives \(P(6)=\frac{1}{6}\approx 0.167\). Therefore, the first model better matches this observation. One outcome frequency alone does not validate the entire model.

Answer

1. \(x=\frac{7}{30}\approx 0.233\) 2. First model: \(P(E)=\frac{17}{30}\approx 0.567\); equally likely-outcomes model: \(P(E)=0.5\) 3. The first model better matches the observed frequency of \(6\), but this observation alone does not confirm the complete model.
53092012
A fair four-sided die labeled \(1,2,3,4\) is rolled twice. a) Let \(S_A\) be the sample space of ordered pairs. Describe \(S_A\), state its size, and explain why its outcomes are equally likely. b) Let \(S_B\) record only the sum of the two rolls. List the possible sums and find the probability of each. c) Verify that the probabilities in part b) form a valid probability distribution. d) Explain why starting with the equally likely ordered-pair sample space is useful even when only the sum matters.

Hints

- Use ordered pairs for the two rolls. - Count how many ordered pairs produce each sum. - Check nonnegativity and that the probabilities total \(1\).

Solution

1. \(S_A=\{(i, j): i, j\in\{1, 2, 3, 4\}\}\), so \(|S_A|=4^2=16\). The die is fair and the rolls are independent, so each ordered pair has probability \(\frac{1}{16}\). 2. \(S_B=\{2,3,4,5,6,7,8\}\). Counting ordered pairs gives probabilities \(\frac{1}{16},\frac{2}{16},\frac{3}{16},\frac{4}{16},\frac{3}{16},\frac{2}{16},\frac{1}{16}\), respectively. 3. Every probability is nonnegative, and their sum is \(\frac{1+2+3+4+3+2+1}{16}=1\). Event probabilities formed by adding the relevant outcome probabilities are additive for disjoint events. 4. In \(S_A\), every outcome is equally likely, so probabilities can be found by counting favorable ordered pairs. The unequal probabilities of sums then follow from how many ordered pairs produce each sum.

Answer

a) \(S_A=\{(i, j): i, j\in\{1, 2, 3, 4\}\}\), \(|S_A|=16\), and every pair has probability \(\frac{1}{16}\). b) For sums \(2,3,4,5,6,7,8\), the probabilities are \(\frac{1}{16},\frac{2}{16},\frac{3}{16},\frac{4}{16},\frac{3}{16},\frac{2}{16},\frac{1}{16}\). c) Yes. The probabilities are nonnegative and sum to \(1\). d) The equally likely ordered pairs make probability calculations a counting problem.
53087412
A manufactured part is checked against three quality standards. Long-term data show that a part meets Standard A with probability \(0.90\), Standard B with probability \(0.85\), and Standard C with probability \(0.80\). Find the smallest and largest possible probabilities that a randomly selected part meets all three standards.

Hints

- Which individual standard places the strongest limit on the maximum? - Consider the probabilities of failing each standard. - What happens to the minimum number of perfect parts if the three types of failures occur on different parts?

Solution

1. The probability of meeting all three standards cannot exceed the smallest individual probability, so \(P(A\cap B\cap C)\le 0.80\). 2. Let \(A^c\), \(B^c\), and \(C^c\) represent failure to meet each standard. Their probabilities are \(0.10\), \(0.15\), and \(0.20\). 3. The probability of failing at least one standard is at most \(0.10+0.15+0.20=0.45\). Therefore, the probability of meeting all three is at least \(1-0.45=0.55\). 4. Both bounds are attainable, so \(P(A\cap B\cap C)\in[0.55,0.80]\).

Answer

The probability is at least \(55\%\) and at most \(80\%\).

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