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A random sample produces a \(95\%\) confidence interval of \((0.41, 0.49)\) for the proportion of all district households that compost food scraps.
For each statement, decide whether it is a valid interpretation and explain why.
a) “There is a \(95\%\) probability that the true household proportion is between \(0.41\) and \(0.49\).”
b) “We are \(95\%\) confident that between \(41\%\) and \(49\%\) of all district households compost food scraps.”
c) “About \(95\%\) of random samples taken by this method would produce intervals that contain the true household proportion.”
Hints
- Distinguish the fixed population parameter from intervals that would vary across samples.
- A contextual interval interpretation should name the population and the response.
- Think about what repeats in the long-run meaning of a confidence level.
Solution
1. Statement a) is not valid because, after the interval is calculated, the fixed population proportion is either in the interval or it is not; the \(95\%\) refers to the long-run success rate of the method.
2. Statement b) is valid because it states confidence about the population proportion in context.
3. Statement c) is valid as a description of the confidence level under repeated random sampling with the same method.
Answer
a) Invalid. The \(95\%\) describes the method’s long-run capture rate, not a probability assigned to the fixed parameter after the interval is computed.
b) Valid.
c) Valid.
