Two independent samples have \(66\) successes out of \(100\) and \(45\) successes out of \(90\). Conditions for a two-sample z-test are satisfied. A student writes:
\(H_0:\hat p_1=\hat p_2\), \(H_a:\hat p_1\ne\hat p_2\)
\(SE=\sqrt{\frac{0.66(0.34)}{100}+\frac{0.50(0.50)}{90}}\), so \(z\approx2.258\) and \(p\approx0.024\).
“Because \(p<0.05\), accept \(H_a\); \(p_1\) is definitely larger than \(p_2\).”
Identify and correct at least three errors. Then give the correct two-sided test statistic, p-value, and conclusion at \(\alpha=0.05\).
Hints
- Check whether hypotheses should describe sample statistics or population parameters.
- Ask what equality under the null hypothesis implies about estimating the standard error.
- Separate the numerical test decision from the strength and direction of the conclusion that the chosen alternative permits.
- Recompute the test from the pooled success count before judging the student's numerical work.
Solution
1. Hypotheses must be about the population parameters: \(H_0:p_1=p_2\) and \(H_a:p_1\ne p_2\), not about the sample proportions.
2. Under \(H_0\), use a pooled estimate rather than the unpooled confidence-interval standard error. The pooled proportion is \(\hat p_c=\frac{66+45}{100+90}=\frac{111}{190}\approx0.5842\).
3. The pooled standard error is \(\sqrt{0.5842(1-0.5842)(\frac{1}{100}+\frac{1}{90})}\approx0.07161\).
4. The observed difference is \(0.66-0.50=0.16\), so \(z=\frac{0.16}{0.0716105\ldots}\approx2.234\).
5. For a two-sided test, the p-value is \(2P(Z\ge2.234\ldots)\approx0.0255\).
6. Since \(0.0255<0.05\), reject \(H_0\). The data provide statistically significant evidence that the two population proportions differ. The conclusion is not certainty, and a two-sided alternative does not state a pre-specified greater-than direction.
Answer
Corrections include using population parameters in the hypotheses, pooling for the null standard error, and replacing “accept” and “definitely” with an evidence-based conclusion. The correct results are \(z\approx2.234\) and p-value \(\approx0.0255\). Reject \(H_0\); there is significant evidence that \(p_1\ne p_2\).