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Scope of inference

Learning goals

  • Determines whether random sampling supports generalization to a population.
  • Determines whether random assignment supports causal inference.
  • Distinguishes association from causation.
  • States conclusions within the limits of the study design.

Click problems to add them to your worksheet.

Scope of inference 1
A factory selects a simple random sample of items produced during a shift and records whether each item is defective. No treatment is imposed. What scope of inference is justified by the sample defect rate?

Hints

- Use the random sample to identify the population. - Determine whether any explanatory treatment was assigned. - Separate estimating a rate from explaining why it occurs.

Solution

1. Random selection permits estimation of the defect proportion for all items produced during that shift. 2. The study is descriptive and observational. 3. It can support generalization about the production population but no causal conclusion about why defects occurred.

Answer

The sample defect rate may be generalized to estimate the defect proportion among all items produced during that shift. The study does not identify causes of defects.
Scope of inference 2
Eighty students volunteer for a memory study. Researchers randomly assign them to use a flashcard app or a practice-quiz app for one week and then measure memory scores. Can the study compare the apps as possible causes of differences in memory score? Can the result be automatically generalized to all students?

Hints

- How were the apps assigned to participants? - Did the researchers randomly select the participants, or did they join themselves? - Consider causation and population representation separately.

Solution

1. The app assignments are random, so the experiment supports a causal comparison between the apps among the student volunteers. 2. The students joined by volunteering, not by random selection from all students. 3. The study design therefore does not support automatic generalization to the wider student population.

Answer

Yes, random assignment supports a causal comparison for the volunteers. No, volunteering does not make them a random sample of all students.
Scope of inference 3
A music festival recruits volunteers for a listening experiment. Researchers randomly assign them to foam earplugs or noise-reducing headphones, then ask them to rate how clearly they hear an announcement over recorded music. An organizer says, “Random assignment means this experiment represents all adults in the country.” What has the organizer confused?

Hints

- How did people enter the listening experiment? - Was the random step about choosing participants or choosing hearing protection? - What claim requires a representative sample rather than a fair treatment comparison?

Solution

1. Random assignment helps compare the two protectors as possible causes of differences in hearing clarity among participants. 2. Representing adults across the country would require an appropriate random sample of that population, which volunteering did not provide. 3. The organizer has confused random treatment assignment with random participant selection.

Answer

The organizer confused random assignment with random sampling. Assignment supports a causal comparison for volunteers; it does not make them representative of all adults.
Scope of inference 4
A school randomly selects students from its full enrollment list and randomly assigns the selected students to receive either a printed or digital practice sheet. Everyone then takes the same short quiz. Could this design support a population comparison and a causal comparison about quiz scores? Explain which random step serves each purpose.

Hints

- Which step decides who enters the study? - Which step decides the practice-sheet format? - Match each step to generalization or causation.

Solution

1. Random selection helps the sample represent students on the enrollment list. 2. Random assignment permits a causal comparison of the two practice-sheet formats. 3. Whether one format actually works better would still depend on the observed results.

Answer

Yes. Random selection supports generalization to students represented by the list, and random assignment supports comparing the formats as possible causes of score differences.
Scope of inference 5
A high school lists every student who belongs to an after-school club, with each name appearing once. It randomly chooses \(60\) names and records their weekly homework hours. Does the way this sample was chosen justify estimating the mean homework time of all students at the school? Which students could it represent instead?

Hints

- Who has a name on the list used for the random selection? - Could a student who is not in any club be selected? - Does a fair draw from one group always represent a larger group?

Solution

1. The random selection includes only students on the club-member list. 2. Students who belong to no club have no chance of being chosen. 3. The sample can help represent club members, but not automatically every student at the school.

Answer

No, not from the sampling method alone. It can represent students who belong to an after-school club, but not automatically all students at the school.
Scope of inference 6
A university takes a simple random sample of its first-year students and randomly assigns each selected student to receive either a standard advising email or a redesigned email. It records whether each student schedules an appointment. How do the two random steps affect the conclusions the university can investigate?

Hints

- Could a first-year student who was not selected still be part of the group the university wants to understand? - Imagine two selected students who receive different messages. Why is the way those messages were chosen important? - Does a sound plan tell you which email worked before you see appointment results?

Solution

1. The random sample allows the study to represent first-year students at that university. 2. Random assignment allows a fair causal comparison of the two email designs. 3. A real effect would require evidence from the results; randomization alone does not prove one design works better.

Answer

Random sampling supports generalizing to the university's first-year students. Random assignment supports testing whether the email design changes appointment-scheduling rates; it does not by itself prove that one email is better.
Scope of inference 7
A county selects a simple random sample of registered voters and records whether each voter attended a public meeting and whether the voter supports a proposed bond. Support is higher among meeting attendees. What may the county infer?

Hints

- Use the sampling method to determine the population scope. - Decide whether attendance was imposed as a treatment. - Phrase the relationship as association unless causation is justified.

Solution

1. Random selection permits generalization to the population of registered voters in the county. 2. Meeting attendance was observed, not assigned. 3. The result supports an association between attendance and bond support in that population. 4. It does not show that attending a meeting causes support.

Answer

The county may generalize the association to all registered voters in the county. It may not conclude that attending a public meeting causes greater support for the bond.
Scope of inference 8
Adults ages \(65\) to \(75\) are recruited from two senior centers and randomly assigned to a tai chi class or a balance-exercise class. Both groups are followed for the same three months. The tai chi group has fewer observed falls per person. What type of comparison does the design support? Can the finding be generalized to all older adults?

Hints

- Was program assignment made by chance? - Which ages and locations are actually represented? - Is a difference between sample averages the same as a proven treatment effect?

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the two programs among the recruited adults. 2. The lower observed group mean does not, by itself, establish that tai chi truly prevents more falls. 3. Participants came from two centers and were not randomly sampled from all older adults.

Answer

The design supports comparing the programs as possible causes of differences in falls among these participants. The observed difference alone does not prove a benefit, and the results cannot automatically be generalized to all older adults.
Scope of inference 9
An electronics manufacturer takes a simple random sample of circuit boards made on Monday. Each board is randomly assigned to a visual inspection or a scanner inspection. The company records whether each method flags the board for repair. Which boards could the study represent, and what can it compare about the inspections?

Hints

- Which boards had a chance to enter the random sample? - What decision was made by chance after the boards were chosen? - Is being flagged for repair necessarily the same as having a real defect?

Solution

1. Random selection supports generalization to the circuit boards made on Monday. 2. Random assignment lets the company compare how often a board is flagged for repair under each inspection method. 3. A flag is not proof of a real defect. Without checking which boards truly have defects, the study cannot compare the methods' accuracy at finding real defects.

Answer

It can represent Monday's production and study how the assigned inspection method affects the proportion of boards flagged for repair. It cannot tell which method finds more actual defects without independently checking the boards.
Scope of inference 10
A wildlife agency takes a simple random sample of deer observed in one protected area during winter and estimates average body mass. How far may the result be generalized?

Hints

- Define the population using both place and time. - Use the sampling frame, not the broader species name, to set the boundary. - Avoid extending the result beyond units that could have been selected.

Solution

1. The random sample represents deer in the defined sampling population: the protected area during winter under the observation frame. 2. It does not automatically represent deer in other areas or seasons. 3. The estimate may be generalized only to the population from which the random sample was selected.

Answer

The estimate may be generalized to deer in that protected area during the winter sampling period that were included in the observation frame. It should not automatically be generalized to unobserved deer, other areas, other seasons, or other deer populations.
Scope of inference 11
A neighborhood association takes a simple random sample from its membership list and estimates support for a zoning proposal. May the result be generalized to all neighborhood residents? Explain.

Hints

- Identify exactly who could be selected. - Compare the sampling frame with the population named in the proposed conclusion. - Limit generalization to the frame represented by the random sample.

Solution

1. The random sample represents the population on the membership list. 2. Residents who are not association members had no chance of selection. 3. Therefore, the result may be generalized to association members but not automatically to all neighborhood residents.

Answer

No. The result may be generalized to association members, not to all neighborhood residents, because nonmembers were outside the sampling frame.
Scope of inference 12
A city randomly samples its signalized intersections. For six weeks, each selected intersection is randomly assigned the usual pedestrian signal or a new countdown signal. The city counts how many pedestrians enter after the warning begins. A reporter writes, “Countdown signals stop late crossings throughout the state.” Give two reasons this headline goes beyond what the study design alone can establish.

Hints

- Which part of the headline is a claim about what happened, rather than what the study could test? - Think about the places in the state that had no chance to enter this study. - How is comparing two signals different from knowing which one produced fewer late crossings?

Solution

1. Random assignment gives the city a fair way to investigate whether the signal changes late-entry counts. No results are given, so the design alone cannot show that countdown signals stop or reduce late crossings. 2. The sample came from intersections in one city, not a random sample of intersections throughout the state. The design alone does not support a statewide claim.

Answer

First, the study design does not tell us that countdown signals reduce late crossings; we would need the results. Second, only intersections in the city were sampled, so the study cannot automatically speak for the whole state.
Scope of inference 13
Volunteers are randomly assigned to a low dose or a high dose of a caffeine-free alertness supplement. Their reaction times are measured after two weeks. There is no placebo or no-treatment group. Which causal comparison can this study make, and what important comparison is missing?

Hints

- Which actual treatments could you compare using the recorded reaction times? - How would you find out what happened without the supplement? - Would comparing the two doses answer that second question?

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison between the two tested doses among participants. 2. Without a no-supplement or placebo group, the study cannot establish how either dose compares with taking no supplement.

Answer

The study can investigate a causal difference between the high and low doses. It cannot compare either dose with taking no supplement because no group received that condition.
Scope of inference 14
A medical center takes an SRS of patients age \(65\) or older and randomly assigns them to two appointment-scheduling systems. It records whether they miss an appointment. What population can the results represent, and what causal comparison is supported by the design?

Hints

- What age group was eligible for the sample? - Which step assigned patients to the scheduling systems? - Could patients under \(65\) have been selected?

Solution

1. Random sampling supports conclusions about the center's patients age \(65\) or older in its sampling frame. 2. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the scheduling systems on missed-appointment rates. 3. Patients younger than \(65\) are outside the sampling frame. 4. The design does not itself show that one system reduces missed appointments.

Answer

The study can compare scheduling systems causally and can represent the center's patients age \(65\) or older. It cannot automatically generalize to younger patients or claim a benefit without studying the results.
Scope of inference 15
A national charter-school network takes an SRS of its teachers and randomly assigns them to one of two online training formats. It measures assessment scores after training. What sort of causal comparison can the network make, and why does the sampling method not represent every U.S. teacher?

Hints

- Which teachers appeared on the sample roster? - What did the researchers assign at random? - Could a teacher outside the network have been selected?

Solution

1. Random assignment permits a causal comparison of the formats on the assessment scores. 2. Random sampling represents the teachers in this charter-school network. 3. Teachers outside the network were not on the sampling list, so they were not represented by chance selection.

Answer

The study can compare training formats causally for teachers in the network. It does not automatically represent all U.S. teachers because teachers outside the network were not sampled.
Scope of inference 16
A publisher randomly samples \(120\) of its current remote proofreaders and assigns them at random to use noise-canceling headphones or their usual equipment for one week. On Friday, everyone checks the same passage for \(30\) minutes, and the publisher counts how many planted errors each person misses. Which proofreaders could the results represent? What causal comparison could the study investigate? Give one limit about time.

Hints

- Could someone who is not one of the publisher's current remote proofreaders be drawn for the study? - Why is it helpful that everyone checks the same passage for the same length of time? - What different length of use would require another study?

Solution

1. Random sampling represents the publisher's current remote proofreaders. 2. Random assignment permits a causal comparison of headphones and usual equipment on the number of missed errors in the same timed passage. 3. The experiment lasted one week and measured performance on Friday, so it cannot establish what would happen after months of use.

Answer

The study could represent the publisher's current remote proofreaders. It could investigate whether headphones affect the number of errors missed on the Friday test. The one-week design does not tell us what would happen after months of use.
Scope of inference 17
A county randomly samples commuters and records their travel time and whether they bike or drive to work. Cyclists in the sample have a shorter mean commute. A council member says, “Biking would make drivers get to work faster.” Give one other possible explanation for the observed difference and explain why the study cannot establish the council member's claim.

Hints

- Think about things that differ between commuters besides whether they bike. - Could the two groups differ in ways that also affect travel time? - What would the study need to know before saying what happens when someone switches travel modes?

Solution

1. People who bike may live closer to work than people who drive; differences in journey length could explain the mean-time difference. 2. Nobody was assigned a travel mode at random, so the observed group difference may be due to other differences between the commuters. 3. The sample can describe a relationship, but it cannot show what would happen if a driver changed to biking.

Answer

For example, cyclists might live closer to work. Because travel mode was observed rather than assigned, this difference could explain the shorter commutes. The study does not show that switching a driver to biking would shorten that person's trip.
Scope of inference 18
A reporter asks \(12\) friends about coffee and sleep. The coffee drinkers report fewer hours of sleep than the others. The reporter writes, “Coffee makes adults sleep less.” Explain two different problems with that claim and state one conclusion the survey can support.

Hints

- Think about who had a chance to be included in this survey. - Could something besides coffee help explain a person's sleep hours? - What can be said about the people who actually answered without claiming more?

Solution

1. The reporter chose friends, not a random sample of adults. The pattern may not hold among adults generally. 2. Nobody was assigned to drink coffee. Other differences, such as work hours, could affect both coffee drinking and sleep. 3. The survey does support describing the reported difference among these \(12\) friends.

Answer

The friends do not represent all adults through a random sample, and coffee was not assigned, so the survey cannot show cause and effect. It does show that coffee drinkers among these \(12\) friends reported less sleep than the others.
Scope of inference 19
A city randomly samples neighborhoods and records tree coverage and average summer temperature in each. Neighborhoods with more tree coverage tend to be cooler. A headline says, “Planting trees definitely makes a neighborhood cooler.” Explain why the study cannot support that headline. Then write a headline it can support.

Hints

- Did the city assign some neighborhoods to plant trees? - Could another difference between neighborhoods affect their temperatures? - How could a headline describe the recorded relationship without claiming a cause?

Solution

1. Tree coverage was measured, not randomly assigned. 2. The study found an association between coverage and average temperature. 3. Other neighborhood differences may explain some or all of that relationship.

Answer

Tree coverage was observed, not assigned, so other neighborhood differences could help explain the cooler temperatures. One suitable headline is: “Neighborhoods with more tree coverage tend to have lower summer temperatures.”
Scope of inference 20
A school district compares two app reminders using the selection and assignment plan below. It records whether each selected student submits homework on time. Can the design support a causal comparison? Does it necessarily represent every district student?
Figure for problem 563375

Hints

- Which branch supplies the names for the random sample? - Which branch is excluded before any assignment occurs? - Which random step addresses comparing treatments and which addresses representing students?

Solution

1. Random assignment of reminders supports a causal comparison of on-time homework submission for sampled app users. 2. The sampling frame contains only active app users. 3. Students who do not use the app cannot be selected, so the sample does not necessarily represent all district students.

Answer

Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the two app reminders among sampled active users. The findings do not automatically generalize to nonusers because they are absent from the sampling frame.
Scope of inference 21
A grocery chain takes a simple random sample of receipts from all purchases made at its stores during one month. For each receipt, it records checkout waiting time and the customer's satisfaction rating. The data show that longer waits are associated with lower ratings. State the strongest conclusions supported by the study.

Hints

- Separate how the observational units were selected from how the explanatory variable arose. - Decide whether the study supports population generalization. - Decide independently whether it supports causation.

Solution

1. Random selection permits generalization from the sampled receipts to all purchases made by the chain during that month. 2. Waiting time was observed rather than randomly assigned. 3. The study supports an association but not a cause-and-effect conclusion.

Answer

The chain may generalize the observed association to all of its purchases during that month. It cannot conclude that longer waits cause lower satisfaction because there was no random assignment of waiting times.
Scope of inference 22
Volunteers from one fitness center are randomly assigned to a new interval-training plan or the center's usual plan. After eight weeks, the interval group has a higher sample mean endurance improvement. What kind of causal comparison does this design allow, and how widely could its result be generalized?

Hints

- What does random assignment contribute to a study? - Was the fitness-center group randomly selected from all adults? - Does a larger observed sample mean by itself prove the treatment helps?

Solution

1. Random assignment allows the plans to be compared as possible causes of differences in endurance improvement among the participants. 2. A higher observed group mean alone does not establish that the new plan has a real positive effect; chance variation is possible. 3. The participants volunteered at one fitness center, so they do not form a random sample of all adults.

Answer

The randomized design supports a causal comparison of the two training plans among these volunteers, though an observed difference alone does not prove an effect. The study cannot automatically generalize its findings to all adults.
Scope of inference 23
A basketball league records minutes played and number of ankle injuries for every player during one complete season. Players with more minutes tend to have more injuries. Describe the scope of inference.

Hints

- Decide whether the data came from a sample or the entire stated population. - Ask whether the explanatory variable was imposed by researchers. - Keep description of a relationship separate from a causal claim.

Solution

1. Because data were collected for every player in that league season, the result describes that full population rather than estimating from a sample. 2. Playing time was not randomly assigned as a treatment. 3. The observed relationship is an association and does not establish that additional minutes cause injuries.

Answer

The association applies to all players in that league during the season studied because the data form a census of that population. A cause-and-effect conclusion is not justified.
Scope of inference 24
A researcher interviews people leaving one downtown farmers market and finds an association between buying local food and reporting high concern about climate change. The people interviewed were the first sixty willing participants. State the appropriate scope of inference.

Hints

- Examine how participants entered the sample. - Identify the group for which data were actually collected. - Ask whether either variable was imposed as a treatment. - State generalization and causation limits separately.

Solution

1. The sample was a convenience sample of willing people at one location. 2. The result cannot be generalized to all city residents, all farmers-market customers, or another defined population. 3. The variables were observed rather than assigned. 4. The study supports an association only among the sixty people interviewed, not a cause-and-effect conclusion.

Answer

The study supports an association only among the sixty willing people interviewed at that market. It does not support statistical generalization to a broader population or a claim that buying local food causes greater climate concern.
Scope of inference 25
Six high schools volunteer for a study. Within each school, classes are randomly assigned to a new discussion routine or the usual routine. Classes using the new routine have higher observed mean participation scores. What causal comparison is possible, and to which schools can the findings be generalized by the study design?

Hints

- Identify whether students, classes, or schools were assigned by chance. - Did the six schools enter the study through random selection? - Think separately about a valid causal comparison and the population represented.

Solution

1. Classes, not individual students, are randomly assigned within each school. 2. That assignment supports a causal comparison of routines among participating classes; a higher observed mean alone does not prove a positive effect. 3. The schools volunteered rather than being randomly sampled, so the study does not automatically represent other high schools.

Answer

The study can compare the routines causally for participating classes, but the observed increase alone does not prove a real benefit. Volunteer schools do not support statistical generalization to all high schools.
Scope of inference 26
A county takes a simple random sample of households and compares households that chose rooftop solar panels with households that did not. Solar households report lower electricity bills. State the appropriate scope of inference.

Hints

- Use the household selection method to determine the population. - Ask whether solar adoption was imposed by researchers. - Allow for alternative explanations when treatment is self-selected.

Solution

1. Random sampling supports generalization to households in the county. 2. Solar adoption was self-selected, not randomly assigned. 3. The study supports an association between solar adoption and electricity bills in the county. 4. It does not establish that installing solar panels caused the full observed difference.

Answer

The association may be generalized to county households. A causal conclusion is not justified because households chose whether to install solar panels, so other differences may explain part of the bill difference.
Scope of inference 27
Researchers randomly sample adults from a county and use medical records from the previous ten years to compare those with high and low long-term air-pollution exposure. Higher exposure is associated with more respiratory diagnoses. State the scope of inference.

Hints

- Use the random sample to identify the population. - Determine whether the exposure was imposed or found in past records. - Account for alternative explanations when stating the relationship.

Solution

1. Random sampling supports generalization to adults in the county. 2. The study is retrospective and observational because past exposure was not assigned. 3. The result supports a countywide association. 4. It does not establish that pollution exposure caused the diagnoses because confounding variables may exist.

Answer

The association may be generalized to adults in the county. The retrospective observational design does not justify a cause-and-effect conclusion.
Scope of inference 28
A delivery service randomly samples dispatch teams from all its U.S. offices. It randomly assigns each sampled team to plan deliveries with a shared digital task board or its existing paper schedule for one month. It records the proportion of each team's deliveries that arrive by the promised time. Which population can be represented, and what causal comparison does the design allow?

Hints

- What is selected and assigned: individual employees or whole teams? - Which teams could appear on the company's roster? - Does random assignment permit comparison or guarantee a benefit?

Solution

1. Work teams are both the sampling and treatment-assignment units. 2. The random sample supports generalization to the delivery service's U.S. dispatch teams on its roster. 3. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of the two scheduling methods at the team level. 4. The design alone does not prove that either method raises the proportion of deliveries that arrive on time.

Answer

Results can represent the delivery service's U.S. dispatch teams on its roster. The design supports a causal comparison of digital-board and paper scheduling at the team level, without itself proving either works better.
Scope of inference 29
A city records every reported bicycle crash during one year. More recorded crashes occurred on streets without bike lanes than on streets with bike lanes. What does this show, and what does it not show about the risk of cycling on these streets?

Hints

- Does the report count crashes or measure how much cycling happens on each kind of street? - Would a street with more bicycle traffic have more chances for crashes? - Was the presence of bike lanes randomly assigned?

Solution

1. The records cover reported bicycle crashes in that city and year, not unreported crashes. 2. The count comparison tells where more reported crashes occurred. 3. Without numbers of bike trips or miles ridden on each type of street, crash counts cannot show which street type has a higher crash risk per trip or mile. 4. Bike-lane status was not assigned randomly, so a causal claim is not justified.

Answer

More reported crashes occurred on streets without bike lanes in that city and year. The data do not establish greater crash risk per rider or trip or show that bike-lane absence caused crashes. Other years, cities, and unreported crashes are outside these records.
Scope of inference 30
Several farms volunteer for a study. Plots within each farm are randomly assigned to watering early in the morning or late in the afternoon, using the same amount of water. Morning-watered plots have higher observed mean crop yield. What causal comparison does the design allow, and which larger population is not represented through random sampling?

Hints

- Which units received the irrigation schedules by chance? - Did the farms enter through a random sample? - Separate the question the experiment can test from a proven result.

Solution

1. The randomized units are plots within the participating farms. 2. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of watering times for these plots, but the observed yield difference alone does not prove morning watering is better. 3. The farms volunteered, so they were not randomly sampled from all farms.

Answer

Watering times can be compared causally for plots in the participating farms. The observed higher mean does not alone prove a benefit, and the design does not support automatic generalization to all farms.
Scope of inference 31
A state agency takes a simple random sample of counties in the state. For each selected county, it records the type of emergency-alert system already in use and the median time residents took to begin evacuating during the county's most recent wildfire. Counties using phone alerts had shorter median evacuation times. State the strongest conclusion supported by the study.

Hints

- Separate how the counties entered the study from how the alert systems were chosen. - Ask whether random selection supports generalization. - Ask whether the explanatory condition was imposed by the researchers.

Solution

1. The counties were randomly selected, so the observed association may be generalized to counties in the state. 2. The alert systems were not randomly assigned; the agency observed systems already in use. 3. Therefore, the study supports an association between phone alerts and shorter median evacuation times for counties in the state, but it does not establish that phone alerts caused the difference.

Answer

The results support a statewide association: counties using phone alerts tend to have shorter median evacuation times. Because the alert systems were not randomly assigned, a cause-and-effect conclusion is not justified.
Scope of inference 32
A manufacturer takes an SRS of rechargeable batteries from one production lot. It randomly assigns sampled batteries to two charging protocols and measures remaining capacity after \(100\) charge cycles. What population and causal comparison can the design support? What longer-term claim would go beyond the data?

Hints

- What group of batteries was sampled? - Which condition was assigned by chance? - What time point was measured, and what time points were not?

Solution

1. Random sampling allows conclusions about batteries from that production lot. 2. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of the two charging protocols for remaining capacity after \(100\) cycles. 3. The experiment does not measure performance after many more cycles or over the full life of the batteries.

Answer

The study can represent the production lot and compare the protocols causally for remaining capacity after \(100\) cycles. It cannot establish which is better over the entire battery life without longer testing.
Scope of inference 33
Two studies evaluate a new budgeting app. Study I takes a simple random sample of all customers and compares people who chose to use the app with people who did not. Study II recruits volunteers and randomly assigns them either to receive the app or not receive it. For each study, state whether it supports generalization to all customers and whether it supports a cause-and-effect conclusion.

Hints

- Analyze participant selection separately from treatment assignment. - Connect random selection with the population represented. - Connect random assignment with whether the explanatory condition can be treated as a cause.

Solution

1. Study I uses random selection, so its observed association may be generalized to all customers. Because app use is self-selected, it does not establish causation. 2. Study II uses random assignment, so it can establish a causal effect of receiving the app among the participants. Because the participants were volunteers rather than a random sample, it does not support statistical generalization to all customers.

Answer

Study I: generalization to all customers is supported; causation is not. Study II: causation is supported for the participants; generalization to all customers is not.
Scope of inference 34
A call center takes a simple random sample from all completed customer-support calls in June. It finds that calls using an interpreter have longer resolution times than calls not using an interpreter. State the population to which the result may be generalized and explain why the study does not establish causation.

Hints

- Define the population from the exact list used for random selection. - Notice which calls never had a chance to appear in that list. - Ask whether the explanatory condition was imposed by the researchers.

Solution

1. The sampling frame contains completed customer-support calls in June, so random selection supports generalization to that population of calls. 2. Calls that were abandoned or never completed are outside the sampled population. 3. Interpreter use was observed rather than randomly assigned. 4. Differences in issue complexity, language needs, or customer circumstances could explain the longer times, so causation is not supported.

Answer

The association may be generalized to completed customer-support calls in June, not to abandoned or other calls outside that frame. Because interpreter use was not randomly assigned, the study does not show that using an interpreter caused longer resolution times.
Scope of inference 35
An online retailer takes an SRS of its customers and randomly assigns two email subject lines. It records whether each customer opens the email but does not record purchases. What causal comparison does this design allow, and why can it not support a conclusion about sales?

Hints

- Which behavior was actually recorded for each customer? - What did the retailer assign by chance? - Could a result about opening emails answer a question about purchases?

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the subject lines on email opening. 2. Random sampling supports generalization to customers represented by the retailer's list. 3. Purchases were never measured, so the experiment cannot establish an effect on buying behavior.

Answer

The retailer can study whether subject-line wording causes a difference in email-open rates among its customers. It cannot claim a change in sales because purchases were not measured.
Scope of inference 36
An app company takes a simple random sample of user sessions recorded in 2025 and finds that sessions begun from push notifications have shorter duration than sessions begun directly. The app interface and notification system were redesigned in 2026. State the justified scope of inference.

Hints

- Define the population using the time period in the sampling frame. - Determine whether the explanatory variable was assigned or merely recorded. - Consider whether a later system change makes the old population comparable to the new one.

Solution

1. Random selection supports generalization to the 2025 user sessions represented by the sampling frame. 2. Session entry method was observed rather than randomly assigned, so only an association is supported. 3. The redesign may have changed user behavior and the meaning of the entry categories. 4. Therefore, the result should not automatically be generalized to 2026 sessions under the redesigned system.

Answer

The study supports an association between entry method and session duration for the 2025 sessions represented by the sample. It does not establish causation and should not automatically be generalized to sessions after the 2026 redesign.
Scope of inference 37
A regional retailer includes all \(12\) of its current stores in an experiment. It randomly assigns each store to one of two inventory systems and counts order errors during a month. What causal comparison can the company make? Explain why the results do not automatically apply to future stores.

Hints

- Is this a sample of current stores or all of them? - How were the inventory systems assigned? - What could differ between current and future locations?

Solution

1. All \(12\) current stores participate, so there is no sampling uncertainty about which current stores are included. 2. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of inventory systems for those stores under the study conditions. 3. The study does not establish a benefit without evidence from the results. 4. Future stores or stores in other regions were not sampled and may differ from the current stores.

Answer

The design allows a causal comparison of the inventory systems for the company's \(12\) current stores. A result for these stores would not automatically apply to future stores or other retailers.
Scope of inference 38
One state adopts a new road-safety law, while a neighboring state does not. Researchers compare crash rates in the two states after the change and find a larger decrease in the adopting state. No states were randomly selected or assigned. State the justified scope of inference.

Hints

- Check whether the policy was assigned by a random mechanism. - Check whether the states were sampled from a larger population. - Keep the conclusion limited to the states and period actually observed.

Solution

1. The policy condition was not randomly assigned, so differences between the states provide alternative explanations for the crash-rate change. 2. The study does not establish that the law caused the larger decrease. 3. Because only these two deliberately chosen states were studied, the result does not support broad statistical generalization to other states. 4. The appropriate conclusion is a descriptive association for the two states during the studied period.

Answer

The study shows that the adopting state had a larger crash-rate decrease than the comparison state during the studied period. It does not establish causation and does not support generalization to other states.
Scope of inference 39
A health system takes a simple random sample of adult patients and records whether each patient has a particular genetic marker and whether the patient has a certain condition. The marker is associated with higher condition prevalence. State the strongest inference.

Hints

- Use the sampling process to set the population scope. - Ask whether researchers imposed the explanatory condition. - Phrase the conclusion as a relationship rather than an intervention effect.

Solution

1. Random selection supports generalizing the association to adult patients in the health-system population represented by the sampling frame. 2. The genetic marker was observed rather than assigned by researchers. 3. The study supports an association between the marker and condition prevalence. 4. It does not show that changing or removing the marker would cause a change in the condition, and other biological factors may explain the relationship.

Answer

Among adult patients represented by the sampling frame, the genetic marker is associated with higher prevalence of the condition. The observational study does not establish a cause-and-effect relationship.
Scope of inference 40
A store takes an SRS of customers who have selected English for messages. The sampled customers are randomly assigned to receive either a short text reminder or a reminder with payment instructions. The store records whether each customer pays on time. What causal comparison can the store make, and why should it be careful about generalizing to all its customers?

Hints

- Which customers are actually in the sampling list? - What was assigned by chance after customers were selected? - Could customers using other languages appear in this sample?

Solution

1. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of the two reminder messages on on-time payment. 2. Random sampling supports representing customers in the English-language communication frame. 3. Customers who selected other languages were not eligible for selection, so generalization to all customers is not automatic. 4. Randomization by itself does not show one version works better.

Answer

The store can compare the two reminder messages causally on on-time payment for customers in the English-language sample frame. It cannot automatically apply the result to customers who selected other languages.
Scope of inference 41
A factory randomly samples employees and assigns each to read a written safety guide or watch a short safety video. Each then completes a computer evacuation simulation. The software records the seconds each employee takes to reach the virtual exit. What comparison can the study make for factory employees, and what cannot be concluded about a real emergency?

Hints

- What did the software measure after each safety lesson? - Which step chose the participants, and which step assigned the lessons? - Does a virtual exit measure exactly how someone acts in a real emergency?

Solution

1. Random sampling can help the participants represent factory employees on the selection list. 2. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of the guide and video on time to reach the virtual exit. 3. These times come from a simulation. No one was observed evacuating in a real emergency.

Answer

The study can compare whether the written guide or video changes simulated evacuation time for factory employees represented by the sample. It cannot establish what would happen in a real emergency.
Scope of inference 42
A polling firm takes an SRS of voters and randomly assigns them to read one of two descriptions of a proposed bond measure. Respondents say whether they intend to vote for it. What causal comparison is possible, and why can't the study conclude anything about actual votes cast?

Hints

- Is the outcome a statement of intention or a completed vote? - Which part of the study is randomized? - Keep the possible conclusion tied to what each respondent actually reported.

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of descriptions on stated voting intentions. 2. Random sampling allows appropriate conclusions to represent the voter population in the sampling frame. 3. The study records intentions, not ballots cast during an election; actual votes are unmeasured. 4. Assignment alone does not prove the descriptions make intentions different.

Answer

The study can compare the descriptions causally on stated voting intention among the sampled voter population. It cannot establish an effect on actual votes, because no votes were measured.
Scope of inference 43
A seed company randomly selects \(240\) seeds of one tomato variety from its current inventory. It randomly assigns those seeds to receive either a new protective coating or the standard coating and grows them under the same greenhouse conditions. It records which seeds germinate. What causal comparison and population can the design support? Name one limit.

Hints

- Which seed variety was eligible for selection? - What condition was assigned by chance? - Which growing conditions stayed fixed during the study?

Solution

1. Random selection represents seeds of the sampled variety in the current inventory. 2. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of coatings on germination under the tested greenhouse conditions. 3. Other tomato varieties and different growing conditions are outside the tested setting. 4. The design does not by itself prove that the new coating improves germination.

Answer

The study can compare the coatings causally for seeds of this tomato variety in the company's current inventory under the tested conditions. A result cannot automatically be applied to other varieties or growing conditions.
Scope of inference 44
An airport analyzes every medical-response call handled at its terminals during 2025. Calls with more response staff on duty tended to have shorter response times. What can the airport conclude, and what can it not conclude, from this study?

Hints

- Decide whether the study used a sample or included the entire stated group. - Ask whether the explanatory condition was assigned by chance. - Keep the conclusion within the location and time period actually observed.

Solution

1. Because every 2025 call at the airport was included, the observed association describes that finite set of calls without sampling uncertainty. 2. Staffing was not randomly assigned, so other factors such as crowd size or incident severity may be related to both staffing and response time. 3. The study does not establish causation and does not automatically generalize to other airports or years.

Answer

For this airport’s 2025 calls, higher staffing was associated with shorter response times. The study cannot show that higher staffing caused the shorter times, and it does not automatically support conclusions about other airports or years.
Scope of inference 45
An electric utility takes an SRS of \(500\) customer homes that have smart thermostats. During July 2026, homes with lower daytime thermostat settings tend to use more electricity. State the strongest justified conclusion and two important limits.

Hints

- Identify the exact sampling frame. - Decide whether the thermostat setting was imposed or merely observed. - Keep the conclusion within the technology and time period represented in the data.

Solution

1. Random selection supports generalization to the utility’s customer homes with smart thermostats. 2. Thermostat settings were observed rather than randomly assigned, so the study supports association but not causation. 3. The conclusion does not automatically extend to homes without smart thermostats or to seasons other than July 2026.

Answer

Among the utility’s customer homes with smart thermostats, lower daytime thermostat settings were associated with greater electricity use during July 2026. The study does not establish causation and does not automatically apply to homes without smart thermostats or to other seasons.
Scope of inference 46
A state agency takes an SRS of \(90\) public swimming pools. During one summer, pools with more lifeguards per \(100\) swimmers tend to report more rescues per \(1000\) swimmers. What scope of inference is justified, and why would a causal conclusion be especially misleading?

Hints

- Separate the role of random selection from the absence of random assignment. - Look for pool characteristics that could affect both staffing and rescues. - Avoid interpreting the direction of an association as the direction of a treatment effect.

Solution

1. Random selection supports generalizing the observed association to public swimming pools in the state during the summer studied. 2. Lifeguard staffing was not randomly assigned, so the study does not support causation. 3. Pools with stronger currents, larger crowds, or higher-risk activities may both employ more lifeguards and require more rescues, reversing the naive causal interpretation.

Answer

The association can be generalized to the state’s public swimming pools during the summer studied. It does not show that adding lifeguards causes more rescues, because higher-risk pools may both schedule more lifeguards and have more rescues.
Scope of inference 47
An online store takes an SRS of \(80\) pages on its current website and randomly assigns each page to use its usual image format or a new compressed format. Page-load time is measured under the same network test. What causal comparison and population can the study support? Why can it not make a claim about purchases?

Hints

- What response did the network test record? - Which pages were eligible for random selection? - Was any customer purchase behavior observed?

Solution

1. The random page sample supports conclusions about the store's current website pages under the test conditions. 2. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of image formats on page-load time. 3. Purchases and customer satisfaction were not measured. 4. A faster observed page-load time alone would not prove a business benefit.

Answer

The design can compare the formats causally for page-load time on the current website under the tested conditions. It cannot establish higher purchases or satisfaction because those outcomes were not measured.
Scope of inference 48
A city has more eligible applicants for a housing-voucher program than available vouchers. It uses a lottery to offer vouchers and follows lottery winners and nonwinners for one year to record whether they remain housed. What causal comparison can the lottery support, and who is outside the population represented?

Hints

- What was awarded by chance? - Is the lottery population every eligible household or only applicants? - Does the design by itself show the direction of an effect?

Solution

1. The lottery randomly assigns the offer of a voucher among applicants. 2. It therefore permits a causal comparison of receiving the offer, not necessarily actual voucher use, for lottery entrants. 3. Applicants were not randomly selected from all eligible households; people who did not apply are outside the study. 4. Random assignment alone does not establish that an offer improves housing stability.

Answer

The lottery supports a causal comparison of being offered a voucher among people who entered this city's lottery. It does not automatically generalize to eligible households that did not apply or to other cities.
Scope of inference 49
A school district asks whether a worked-example video or a practice-first video helps students earn higher algebra quiz scores. It has a list of students with working school email accounts, but some students are missing because their accounts are inactive. Researchers take an SRS of \(200\) students from that list and randomly assign them to one of the videos. a) Name the random-sampling and random-assignment steps. b) Identify the main coverage problem. c) State the causal comparison the design supports and the population limit.

Hints

- Trace the order from roster to sample to video groups. - Compare the roster with the district's full student population. - Connect sampling to generalization and assignment to a causal comparison.

Solution

1. Students are randomly sampled from the working-email list and then randomly assigned to one of the videos. 2. Students whose accounts are inactive cannot enter the sample, so the frame undercovers district students. 3. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of the videos on quiz score. 4. Random selection represents the working-email-list population, not automatically every student in the district. 5. The design itself does not prove that one video raises scores.

Answer

a) Random sampling: the SRS of \(200\) students from the working-email list. Random assignment: assigning sampled students to the two video types by chance. b) Undercoverage: students with inactive email accounts are excluded. c) The study can compare the videos causally for students represented by the list, but it does not automatically generalize to all district students.
Scope of inference 50
A city wants to know whether mailing a fire-safety reminder makes households more likely to test their smoke alarms. A month later, it will record whether each household tested its alarms. The city also wants findings that apply to households throughout the city. Which plan can address both goals? For each other plan, explain what it cannot establish from its design.
Figure for problem 563372

Hints

- Could a household that never volunteers online enter each plan? - In which plans might people's existing habits affect whether they ask for the reminder? - A plan can have a fair treatment comparison without representing everyone. Look for that distinction.

Solution

1. Plan 1 draws households from the complete city list and uses a coin flip to send or not send a reminder. It can support both a citywide conclusion and a causal comparison, depending on the results. 2. Plan 2 randomly samples households, but those households choose whether to receive the reminder. It cannot isolate a causal effect of the reminder. 3. Plan 3 assigns sending or not sending the reminder by chance, but only among households that volunteer online. It can compare treatment effects among those volunteers, not reliably represent all city households. 4. Plan 4 uses volunteers who choose the reminder. It offers neither random-sample generalization nor a randomized causal comparison.

Answer

Plan 1 can address both goals. Plan 2 lacks random treatment assignment, so household differences may explain any effect. Plan 3 lacks a citywide random sample, so volunteers may not represent other households. Plan 4 lacks both random steps and supports neither broad conclusion by design alone.
Scope of inference 51
A county wants to know whether an illustrated composting guide works better than a text-only guide. It wants findings that apply to households throughout the county. The proposed study asks one shopper per household at a garden store to choose a guide to take home. A month later, the county checks whether each household sorts its compost correctly. Redesign the study to meet both goals. Explain why changing only the way people are recruited would not be enough.

Hints

- Which households could never enter a study that recruits only garden-store shoppers? - Might the people who pick an illustrated guide already differ from those who pick the text-only guide? - Consider whether your redesign fixes both problems or just one.

Solution

1. Randomly select households from a complete county household list rather than taking only households represented by garden-store shoppers. 2. Randomly assign the selected households to receive either the illustrated or text-only guide, then measure compost sorting after the same period. 3. Better recruitment alone would not separate the guides' effects, since households choosing a guide might already differ in composting habits.

Answer

Draw households at random from a complete county address list, then assign each selected household a guide by chance. Measure compost sorting after a month. A random sample alone would not fix self-selection into the guide types.
Scope of inference 52
Volunteers are randomly assigned to use a mindfulness app or no app for \(4\) weeks. The app group has a lower observed mean self-reported stress score. What can random assignment help researchers investigate? Give one measurement limit and one population limit.

Hints

- What was assigned by chance? - What stress outcome was actually recorded, and what other outcome was not? - How were volunteers recruited into the study?

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of app use on reported stress among the participants. 2. The lower observed group mean alone is not proof of a true effect. 3. Self-reported stress does not necessarily measure physiological stress. 4. Volunteers were not randomly sampled from all adults, so the results do not automatically generalize to that population.

Answer

The study can investigate whether the app causes a change in reported stress for its volunteers, but an observed difference alone does not prove one. Reported stress may differ from physiological stress, and volunteers do not represent all adults through random sampling.
Scope of inference 53
A clinic recruits volunteers who missed appointments in the past. Each has another appointment next month, and all receive the usual reminder. The clinic randomly offers half of them a free bus pass as well. It records whether each person misses that next appointment. Some patients offered a pass do not use it. Which effect can the experiment study, which effect can it not isolate, and which patients could its results represent?

Hints

- What was assigned by chance: an offer or an actual bus trip? - Which later outcome did the clinic record for every participant? - Did the participants join through a random sample of all clinic patients?

Solution

1. Researchers randomly assigned an offer, not actual pass use. 2. The groups can therefore be compared to study whether being offered a pass affects missing the next appointment. 3. Patients decide whether to use a pass, so the separate effect of actually riding the bus is not isolated by random assignment. 4. These volunteers are not a random sample of all clinic patients.

Answer

It can study the effect of being offered a free pass on missing the next appointment, not the separate effect of using the bus. The findings concern these volunteers and do not automatically apply to all clinic patients.
Scope of inference 54
Researchers take an SRS of juvenile trout from one lake and randomly assign them to two laboratory water temperatures. Mass gain is measured after \(30\) days. State the population and causal comparison the study can support, then identify two limits on a conclusion about trout in the wild.

Hints

- Where did the randomly sampled trout come from? - What did random assignment change for the fish? - Which details of time and environment are specific to this test?

Solution

1. Random sampling represents juvenile trout from the sampled lake. 2. Random assignment allows causal comparison of the tested temperatures under the laboratory conditions. 3. The results are tied to the two temperatures and \(30\)-day period. 4. Other lakes, adult trout, and natural field conditions may differ from the sampled and laboratory conditions.

Answer

The design supports a causal comparison of the two tested temperatures for juvenile trout from this lake in the laboratory. Two limits are the \(30\)-day duration and the fact that laboratory conditions may not match natural lake conditions.
Scope of inference 55
Researchers take a simple random sample of counties and find that counties with more public park acreage per resident tend to have lower adult obesity rates. State the county-level inference that is supported and explain why an individual-level conclusion is not supported.

Hints

- Identify the observational unit represented by each data point. - Keep the conclusion at the same level as the measured variables. - Ask whether any individual person's exposure and outcome were paired in the data.

Solution

1. Random selection of counties supports generalizing the observed county-level association to counties in the population represented by the sample. 2. The variables are county averages or rates, so the observational units are counties. 3. The study does not link individual residents' park access with their individual obesity status. 4. Therefore, it cannot conclude that a particular person with greater park access is less likely to have obesity, and it does not establish causation.

Answer

The study supports a population-level association among counties: counties with more park acreage per resident tend to have lower adult obesity rates. It does not support an individual-level claim about residents, and it does not establish that parks cause lower obesity rates.
Scope of inference 56
A city randomly samples apartment buildings and assigns each selected building to get a building-wide composting program or keep its usual waste system. It records each building's proportion of residents who compost. What is the unit of assignment, and what population and causal comparison can the design support?

Hints

- Is each resident assigned separately, or is one program chosen for a whole building? - Which units were randomly selected from the city? - Keep the level of the conclusion the same as the assigned unit.

Solution

1. Entire buildings, not residents, receive treatment assignments. 2. Random selection can represent the city's apartment buildings covered by the sampling frame. 3. Random assignment allows a causal comparison of building-wide programs on building-level participation rates. 4. It does not create individually randomized treatments for residents or establish a positive program effect by itself.

Answer

Buildings are the experimental units. The design can compare the two building-wide programs causally for apartment buildings covered by the city's sample. It does not support treating residents as independently assigned participants.
Scope of inference 57
A university randomly selects students from its full enrollment list and invites them to try one of two study tools. Only students who agree take part. Those participants are randomly assigned to the tools and take a quiz. What type of causal comparison can the experiment make, and why does the random invitation not ensure the results represent all university students?

Hints

- Trace the process from invitation to actual participation. - Which step depends on the student's own decision? - What random step occurs after the volunteers agree to participate?

Solution

1. Random assignment supports a causal comparison of study tools among participating students. 2. The initial invitation list was random, but actual participation depended on each student's decision to consent. 3. Participants may differ from those who did not volunteer, so the final study group is not necessarily representative of all enrolled students. 4. The design alone does not show either tool improves scores.

Answer

The experiment can compare the tools causally among participating students. Because only invited students who consented were assigned, the study does not automatically generalize to everyone at the university.
Scope of inference 58
Identical-twin pairs volunteer from a twin registry. Within each pair, one twin is randomly assigned a high-fiber diet and the other the usual diet. Cholesterol is measured after six weeks. What causal comparison can this design make? Does it represent all adults?

Hints

- Which two people are compared within each pair? - Which diet assignment is made at random? - Where did the twin pairs come from, and does that represent all adults?

Solution

1. Random assignment within each twin pair allows a causal comparison of the diets for the participating twins. 2. Pairing controls for genetics and shared background, but the design alone does not show which diet lowers cholesterol. 3. The pairs were volunteers from a special registry and were not randomly sampled from all adults.

Answer

The study can compare the diets causally among the participating twins, using pairs to control shared characteristics. The volunteer twin sample does not support automatic generalization to all adults.
Scope of inference 59
A hospital reviews records for all patients who survived at least \(30\,\text{days}\) after a major procedure. Among these survivors, patients who began rehabilitation earlier had shorter hospital stays. State the scope of inference and explain why the study cannot address \(30\)-day survival.

Hints

- Identify the condition required for a patient to enter the dataset. - Keep the conclusion within the group satisfying that condition. - Ask whether the excluded patients are necessary for studying the survival outcome.

Solution

1. The dataset is restricted to patients who survived at least \(30\,\text{days}\), so conclusions apply only to that survivor population. 2. Rehabilitation timing was observed rather than randomly assigned, so the study supports an association, not causation. 3. Patients who died within \(30\,\text{days}\) are excluded by design. 4. Because the outcome used to define inclusion removes all nonsurvivors, the study cannot estimate or compare \(30\)-day survival for rehabilitation groups.

Answer

Among \(30\)-day survivors, earlier rehabilitation is associated with shorter hospital stays. The study does not establish causation and cannot draw conclusions about \(30\)-day survival because nonsurvivors were excluded.
Scope of inference 60
A retailer takes an SRS of store-days from its October–December 2026 schedule. Each selected store-day is randomly assigned to have a checkout promotion or no promotion, and daily sales are recorded. Identify the experimental unit and the population and causal comparison the design supports.

Hints

- What is the smallest unit to which the promotion is assigned separately? - Which dates and stores could enter the random sample? - Were individual shoppers assigned to treatments?

Solution

1. One store on one day receives a separate assignment, so a store-day is the experimental unit. 2. Random sampling can represent the store-days on the October–December schedule. 3. Random assignment permits causal comparison of promoting versus not promoting on daily sales totals. 4. It does not independently assign a treatment to each customer and does not by itself prove an increase in sales.

Answer

Experimental unit: a store-day. The design can compare the promotion causally for store-days on the October–December 2026 schedule. It does not prove the promotion raises sales or establish shopper-level treatment effects.
Scope of inference 61
Researchers use observational records to match people who chose a meal-delivery service with nonusers of similar age, income, and household size. Service users spend less time cooking. Does the matching support a causal conclusion? State the strongest inference.

Hints

- Distinguish making groups similar from assigning exposure by chance. - Identify variables that may not have been included in the match. - Phrase the conclusion as an association when self-selection remains.

Solution

1. Matching can make the two groups more similar on the variables used for matching. 2. Meal-delivery use was still self-selected rather than randomly assigned. 3. Unmeasured differences, such as work schedule or interest in cooking, may remain confounded with service use. 4. The study supports an association between service use and less cooking time among the matched people, but not a causal effect.

Answer

Matching does not create random assignment. The study supports an association between meal-delivery use and less cooking time among the matched people, but it does not establish that the service caused the reduction.
Scope of inference 62
A national running club takes an SRS of adult members and randomly assigns them to two hydration plans. It compares mean race times for all sampled members together. Can the club also conclude that one plan is better for every age group and for men and women separately? Explain.

Hints

- Was the analysis performed for the entire sample or separately by group? - Could an overall average hide different patterns in different groups? - What additional comparisons would be needed to discuss a subgroup?

Solution

1. Random sampling allows findings about the club's adult members, and random assignment allows a causal comparison of the plans. 2. An overall comparison does not show the size or direction of any effect within each age or sex subgroup. 3. Such claims need adequate data and comparisons for the subgroups themselves.

Answer

No. The design can study an average causal effect for adult club members overall, but a result for everyone combined does not establish the same effect for each subgroup or person.
Scope of inference 63
A company takes a simple random sample of employees and randomly assigns them to a wellness program or a control group. Before the final measurement, \(35\%\) of the wellness group and \(5\%\) of the control group drop out. The analysis uses only employees who finish. Explain how the unequal dropout affects the scope of inference.

Hints

- Compare the proportions of missing outcomes across the two assigned groups. - Ask whether the people who remain are still likely to be comparable. - Distinguish the originally assigned sample from the smaller group included in the final analysis.

Solution

1. The original random selection and random assignment would support population-level causal inference if outcome data were retained comparably across groups. 2. Large differential dropout can make the remaining treatment and control groups systematically different. 3. A comparison of completers may therefore reflect both the treatment and differences in who remained. 4. The clean causal conclusion for all sampled employees, and its generalization to all employees, is weakened unless the missing outcomes are addressed appropriately.

Answer

Differential attrition can destroy the comparability created by random assignment among the analyzed completers. A complete-case comparison may not support a causal conclusion for all sampled employees or a generalization to all employees without addressing the missing outcomes.

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