A server randomly gives four different drinks—cola, orange soda, water, and juice—to four guests after forgetting who ordered each drink. Number the drinks by the guests who ordered them, so a tuple lists the drink numbers served to guests \(1\) through \(4\).
a) List all permutations in which at least two guests receive the correct drink.
b) Find the theoretical probability that at least one guest receives the correct drink.
c) Explain without calculation why exactly three correct assignments are impossible.
d) In \(20\) trials, at least one guest received the correct drink in \(15\) trials. Does this result contradict the theoretical model? Explain.
Hints
- Represent each assignment as a permutation.
- Use the complement of no correct assignments.
- Consider what remains after three correct assignments.
- Small samples can vary noticeably from theoretical probabilities.
Solution
1. The permutations with exactly two correct assignments are \((1, 2, 4, 3),(1, 4, 3, 2),(1, 3, 2, 4),(4, 2, 3, 1),(3, 2, 1, 4),(2, 1, 3, 4)\). The identity permutation \((1, 2, 3, 4)\) has four correct assignments, so there are \(7\) permutations with at least two correct assignments.
2. Of the \(4!=24\) permutations, \(9\) have no fixed points. Therefore, \(P(\text{at least one correct})=1-\frac{9}{24}=\frac{5}{8}=0.625\).
3. If three guests receive the correct drinks, the only remaining drink must also belong to the remaining guest, so all four assignments are correct.
4. The observed relative frequency is \(\frac{15}{20}=0.75\). With only \(20\) trials, a difference from \(0.625\) of this size is compatible with random variation and does not contradict the model.
Answer
a) \((1, 2, 4, 3),(1, 4, 3, 2),(1, 3, 2, 4),(4, 2, 3, 1),(3, 2, 1, 4),(2, 1, 3, 4),(1, 2, 3, 4)\)
b) \(\frac{5}{8}=0.625\)
c) Three correct assignments force the fourth assignment to be correct.
d) No. A relative frequency of \(0.75\) in only \(20\) trials can result from random variation.